( NEXSTAR)-- In these unsure times, we understand at least something for sure: El Niño is here. There's 100% certainty El Niño will last through early winter, the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, just recently stated, and a 90% or greater possibility it lasts into spring.
El Niño generally divides the nation in half, but where the dividing line falls differs from year to year. The southern 3rd to half of the United States, consisting of California, is likely to be wetter throughout an El Niño winter. The Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley are warm and normally dry.
While El Niño's impacts are never a warranty, the climate pattern tends to influence weather condition across the U.S. as it reaches peak strength in the winter.
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Does that mean El Niño will bring winter storms and feet of snow? Not all over and not always, discusses Michelle L'Heureux, a meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center, in an article recently.
" In truth, El Niño appears to be the fantastic snowfall suppressor over the majority of North America."
El Niño may bring additional rainfall to the southern half of the nation, but it's not constantly cold enough there to turn that moisture into snow. You do see some extra snow during El Niño winter seasons in the mountainous areas of the West, like the Sierra Nevada mountain in California and the southern part of the Rocky Mountains.
Meanwhile, the Great Lakes, some of New England, the northern Rockies and the Pacific Northwest normally see less snow throughout an El Niño winter, L'Heureux says.
Colorado normally sees more snow throughout an El Niño winter season. Snow amounts to trend higher for locations around the southwestern corner of the state, from Alamosa to Cortez and north to Grand Junction and Aspen.
Fort Collins, however, often sees less snow.
The locations that get more typical snowfall in an El Niño winter are shaded in blue on the map below, while areas that see less snow are shaded in brown.
Snowfall during all El Niño winters (January-March) compared to the 1991-2020 average (after the long-term trend has actually been eliminated). (NOAA Climate.gov map, based upon ERA5 information from 1959-2023 examined by Michelle L'Heureux).
Throughout a strong El Niño, like we are expecting to see this year, the results are much more pronounced. More snow starts to show up in Northern California, the Four Corners states, the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, and the southern Appalachia region.
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The suppression of snow up north is also stronger during an effective El Niño. States like Oregon,
Washington,
New York and Pennsylvania are the most likely to see below-average snowfall.
When El Niño is more powerful, Colorado likewise tends to see less snow. A region in between Steamboat Springs and
Fort Collins south to
Colorado Springs and Gunnison tends to see below-average snow. The remainder of the state sees typical to above-average snowfalls.

Snowfall throughout moderate-to-strong El Niño winter seasons (January-March) compared to the 1991-2020 average (after the long-term pattern has been removed). (NOAA Climate.gov map, based on ERA5 information from 1959-2023 analyzed by Michelle L'Heureux.).
Before you pack away the snow equipment, L'Heureux cautions against checking out the information averages as a pledge.
" El Niño nudges the odds in favor of certain climate outcomes, but never ensures them," writes L'Heureux.
There's likewise the impact of environment modification, which has actually indicated less snowy winter seasons with time for much of the U.S. On the other hand, a freak snowstorm can always defy the odds, even during an El Niño year.
In its most recent outlook, the Climate Prediction Center stated there is a 75% to 85% opportunity that we see a "strong" El Niño this winter season. There's a 30% possibility it ends up being among the strongest ever tape-recorded.
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