El Niño is back: What does this mean for California's winter?

After a four-year break, El Niño is back, leaving lots of to question what it means for California's upcoming winter season.

El Niño is the temporary warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator. When the water temperature rises a half-degree Celsius above regular over a three-month period, that is considered to be an El Niño pattern.

When the water rises 1.5 degrees Celsius above typical, that's thought about a strong El Niño – – which might hold true this winter.

" It does appear as though this occasion is going to come quite close to that if not go beyond that," stated Ben Reppert, a meteorology teacher at Penn State University. El Nino establishing around the Pacific equator in 2023 (NOAA).

In December 1997, 7 inches of rain fell in parts of Orange County in one day. February 1998 brought more than 13 inches of rain to downtown Los Angeles, triggering significant damage.

Throughout strong El Niño winter seasons, we typically see heavy rains in the southwestern United States and in Southern California. Historically, we see more snowfall in the Sierra and southern Rockies, however less snow in the Northeast.

Before you schedule your winter ski vacation, keep in mind that El Niño isn't a guarantee.

Last winter's record snowfall in Southern California was during a La Niña when chances preferred a drier winter.

" I would put my cash on a fairly damp winter in Southern California. We truly can't rule out any possible outcomes. So what El Niño really is doing is tilting the odds," Reppert said.

Robbie Monroe with the National Weather Service believes this El Niño could develop a confluence of elements that lead to flooding and mudslides.

" With possibly warmer air coming in from the Pacific, we might have higher snow levels – – 10,000 feet or higher sometimes. Therefore all that water, rather of being locked up at the high elevations in the kind of snow, might be coming down at the very same time that we're seeing heavier rain at lower elevations.".

Southern California Weather Home.

While the El Niño and La Niña oscillation has a significant influence on weather patterns worldwide, professionals state they are naturally occurring phenomena and not inherently brought on by climate change. The frequency of these occasions, Reppert says, is likely linked to worldwide warming.

" They are related to environment change in the sense that our company believe that we are more likely to see more extreme El Niño and La Niñan events more regularly in a warming environment," he says.

Animation revealing El Niño conditions establishing around the Pacific equator in 2023 (NWS).