Our fantastic weather days are starting to diminish, however there are still some left. It's not that today will be that bad, however there are more clouds of the upper variety and maybe in some locations of the lower range that will be blocking out the sunlight.
This will keep temperatures in the mid-60s (perhaps lower than that in some areas) this afternoon. The winds today will be brisk as well and from the south ahead of a cold front that will blow through overnight tonight.
One sentence forecast: Blustery winds with more mild temperatures and a great deal of clouds today.
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Projection
Today: Mostly cloudy with some veiled sunlight. Windy with gusts to 30+ possible this afternoon and moderate with highs in lower 60s.
Tonight: Clouds and mild at first then turning blustery and colder with lows by daybreak in the upper 30s.
Tomorrow: Breezy and cooler with highs in the lower 50s… … more seasonable. Saturday: Sunny and warmer with highs in the 60 ° range.
Sunday: Increasing clouds but the rain may hold off until later in the afternoon or evening as showers battle to move eastwards. Still okay with highs in the 55-60 ° variety again depending upon the amount of sunshine throughout the early morning.
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Discussion
The models have actually been sort of flipping and flopping around these last few days relating to next week. The main point is, when does the cold air come into the area to hang out for some time? This has direct implications on Thanksgiving and later on because there might well be some arctic air entering into the pattern later next week.
More on that in a few minutes.
Things:.
Today is different. The skies are not as blue, the winds not as calm, and the temperatures not as warm as yesterday. It's still OK and still well above average, however the satellite image reveals the beginning of the change today.
Look carefully and you can see higher level clouds streaming in mostly above 20,000 feet. The other thing is look south, see that white area moving northward? That is lower cloud cover.
So, we're being gotten into by clouds below and above and that isn't a dish for big heat. We may get stuck in the lower 60s this afternoon, still 10 ° above average for the day.
These clouds are surging north ahead of a cold front that will slice into the area tonight.
This front will sweep away the milder air and change it with more seasonable air tomorrow. The transition will feature wind in the wee hours of the early morning, gusting to around 25 MPH and possibly in a few areas with some sprinkles.
Tomorrow is more seasonable with sunlight.
Saturday looks fantastic.
Sunday begins transitioning to the long written and discussed storm, at first as a series of storms in Alaska then as a hot mess off the western US… … and now as a more cohesive storm that brought rain to California.
This system comes into the region with clouds in the beginning on Sunday. We might though get enough sunlight in the very first couple of hours of the day on Sunday to warm us back well into the 50s before the clouds thicken up enough and rain ends up being possible in the mid-afternoon or night on Sunday.
This is connected to the storm out west as mentioned.
It will break up in a couple of pieces as it comes ashore by Saturday early morning, and among those pieces will come into the area Sunday morning. This ought to thicken the clouds at a fast lane Sunday.
Then the whole thing develops into an upper-level low in the Plains and broadly turns over the area, while at the very same time sinking moves eastwards on Monday.
While the rain quantities do not look overly heavy, and it's been a few weeks considering that our last rain, we could really utilize some as the drought report (more on this tomorrow) is worsening in some locations again, at least it will be something.
From the EURO.
While this storm does not have any Canadian air linked to it … it
will sort of manufacture its own cold air on Monday. Much so that if we go up to around 5,000 feet by early Wednesday early morning, that is a pretty
substantial considerable air outbreak break out through the eastern Plains and Great Lakes. We may well have the chillier air around, now potentially
moisture streaming above that colder air.
The GFS ensembles though really don't (possibly some flurries )and the EURO
actually doesn't either to a big level, although they are revealing some potential light snow in the area somewhere. There would be a LOT of drier air in the environment to get rid of and the wave would not be excessively strong that would potentially streak eastwards from the Rockies, but it's something to watch and it's still a week away, I guess. Overall though, it does
get chillier starting on Monday and that might last for the rest of November … so the bubble will rupture on our good mild days that we've delighted in for most of November. We'll dive into the end of next week system maybe more tomorrow.
The feature image is from @BlueSpringsWx. Joe.
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