Election Countdown: Are Voter Turnout Trends Shifting in 2024?

As we approach the crucial Election Day, it’s essential to examine how early voting patterns are shaping up across the nation. With just a few weeks left, the data is already revealing intriguing trends that could impact the outcome of the elections.

The State of Early Voting

As of now, over 430,000 votes have already been cast in 25 states. This number represents a small fraction of the 158 million votes tallied during the 2020 presidential election. Early voting had reached unprecedented levels during the pandemic, and now we are seeing a significant drop in participation this year.

• In the 34 states and the District of Columbia where data is available, more than 53 million pre-election ballots have been requested.
• Despite the high numbers, requests for ballots are down compared to the same period in 2020.

Understanding the Shift in Voter Behavior

While early voting data doesn’t predict final outcomes, it offers valuable insights into general voter trends across demographics such as age, gender, and race. As Catalist CEO Michael Frias noted, these trends can help gauge where voter enthusiasm lies as we inch closer to election day.

The decline in early voting interest isn't surprising given that the pandemic heavily influenced voter behavior in 2020. Many voters were hesitant to vote in person due to health concerns. This year, however, with pandemic restrictions lifted, a larger portion of voters is likely to return to in-person voting.

Older Voters Lead the Charge

Interestingly, older voters are making up a larger share of early ballot requests compared to 2020:

• In Georgia, voters aged 65 and over account for 59% of requests, up from 48% in 2020.
• In Michigan, the figure is 53%, an increase from 42%.
• Pennsylvania sees a rise to 50%, compared to 38% previously.
• Wisconsin reports 46%, up from 34%.

Partisan Dynamics at Play

The partisan landscape of early voting is also evolving. While Democrats traditionally dominated pre-election voting, recent data suggests the gap may be narrowing:

• In Pennsylvania, Democrats have requested 62% of all ballots, down from 66% in 2020, while Republicans increased their share to 26%.
• In Florida, Democrats account for 42% of requests, slightly down from 44%, while Republicans' share rose to 35%.

Interestingly, Republicans have been actively encouraging their supporters to vote early, despite former President Trump’s claims that mail voting is susceptible to fraud.

The Racial Breakdown of Voter Requests

When examining voter demographics, the racial composition of those requesting pre-election ballots in key states remains largely consistent with 2020:

• In Florida, White voters now represent 74% of requests, up from 69%.
• Latino voters have decreased to 13% from 16%, and Black voters dropped to 10% from 12%.

Looking Ahead

With early in-person voting not yet fully underway in most areas, the upcoming weeks will be crucial for both parties. Each campaign is keenly monitoring these trends to better target their outreach efforts. As we head into what many anticipate to be a more 'normal' election cycle, the implications of these trends could shape the political landscape for years to come.

What do you think?

• Will the decline in early voting lead to lower overall voter turnout?
• Are older voters setting a trend that could influence younger voters in future elections?
• How do you feel about the push for early voting from Republican leaders?