AUSTIN (KXAN)-- For the first time in a year and a half, we're no longer in a La Niña phase, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
As an outcome, the La Niña advisory has actually ended and the CPC has actually released a Final La Niña Advisory, basically putting a cap on completion of our newest La Niña period and the 3rd La Niña winter in a row.
La Niña is the "cool stage" of the El-Niño-Southern-Oscillation or ENSO. It's marked by water temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean cooler than -0.5 º C compared to the long-term average. These waters warmed to simply -0.4 º C compared to normal for the February regular monthly average, which takes us out of La Niña and into an ENSO Neutral Phase.
Water temperature level isn't the only part to measuring ENSO-- how the environment is reacting or acting to the warmer or cooler water is likewise analyzed. There are some sticking around indications of La Niña leftover in the atmosphere, however in general, even the environment is trending towards a neutral phase.
What's next?
As we spoke about throughout last month's ENSO upgrade, spring is historically a challenging time to make accurate ENSO forecasts for the following winter. ENSO occasions generally peak in the winter season, so as you're coming out of them in the spring it can be difficult to see adequate signals in the water or the atmosphere to get a great manage on what will occur throughout the following season.
There are, still, notable indicators that a shift to El Niño is still in the cards later this year.
ENSO forecast (Updated March 2023). Courtesy: CPC
An ENSO neutral period is preferred through the three-month period of June-July-August. ENSO neutral indicates the temperature of the Pacific Ocean would not have a quantifiable influence on the weather condition we see in North America.
By July-August-September, El Niño ends up being the preferred phase of ENSO with more than 60% odds of El Niño by August-September-October and rollovering into early winter 2023-24.
According to the NOAA ENSO Blog, we've never ever gone 5 years without El Niño and today we're into year 4.
What would El Niño suggest?
La Niña makes for warmer and drier winter seasons here in Central Texas, but El Niño does the opposite. A wetter and cooler winter season would potentially help us with our drought however could likewise bring more flash flooding events to the area.
El Niño in North America (Courtesy: NASA Earth Observatory, illustration by Joshua Stevens).
We must have a more definitive idea about what to expect next winter once we make it through this spring, where historically, confidence starts to increase.
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