Wynn and Encore are seen along the Las Vegas Strip on Tuesday, Feb. 15, 2022, in Las Vegas. (Chase Stevens/Las Vegas Review-Journal)( Getty Images)Southern Nevada Casino Collectibles Club poker chips are readily available during a souvenirs show at the Gold Coast hotel-casino on Friday, Sept. 23, 2022, in Las Vegas. The Southern Nevada Casino Collectibles Club hosted the show. (Ellen Schmidt/Las Vegas Review-Journal) @ellenschmidttt
The American Gaming Association reported last week that even after among the greatest quarters in history, the market appears headed for deceleration over the next six months.

The AGA Gaming Industry Outlook, established by Fitch Ratings with Oxford Economics, said its study of 26 executives from major global and domestic video gaming business, tribal video gaming operators, single-unit casino operators, major video gaming equipment providers and leading iGaming and sports betting operators, performed in between March 29 and April 10, showed things will not be as rosy by the end of the year as they are now.

That's difficult to fathom, thinking about the excellent run the industry is on in Southern Nevada and the lineup of special occasions on the horizon that might attract record varieties of visitors.

It's likewise real that what goes up need to come down.

Michael Lawton, senior economic analyst for the Nevada Gaming Control Board, who crunches gaming win numbers for the state on a monthly basis, informed me recently how even if Nevada gaming win numbers are outstanding in the months ahead, they might not look especially great when compared to record data from 2022.

He used a chart to discuss what he suggested: On Tuesday, the Control Board reported the state's 441 significant licensed gambling establishments won $1.31 billion from bettors - - the second-best March in history and the 25th straight month that win surpassed $1 billion - - however it was a 3.2 percent decrease from last year.

Difficult comparisons abound

He stated future year-over-year contrasts will be difficult as 2022 saw numerous record monthly efficiencies - - April, May and June were the state's best performance in history. Only in July will the pattern break, as July 2022 was only the second-best July ever. Then, August will be compared with the best August ever from 2022.

It'll continue like that through November (second-highest win was in November 2022) then until March 2024, which will be compared to March 2023 (2nd best March) and 2022 (finest March ever).

The caution has been sounded. Gaming win most likely will decline percentage-wise this next year. Industry leaders anticipate a mini-recession in the months ahead.

The AGA report is based upon 2 indices. The Current Conditions Index determined 106 and showed strong growth in gambling establishment gaming-related financial activity in the very first quarter relative to the prior quarter (index values above 100 indicate activity is increasing). The Future Conditions Index decelerated to 97.1, indicating annualized industry financial activity over the next six months is anticipated to reduce moderately.

The Future Conditions Index reflects the present Oxford Economics anticipated that the U.S. economy will experience a mild economic crisis in the second half of 2023, with customers coming under pressure as small earnings growth softens, savings decrease, inflation stays high and organization investment spending slows.

While that sounds like ominous news, Las Vegas always appears to be the wild card when it pertains to market resiliency.

It has actually been well-documented that Las Vegas finds a way to reshuffle through hard times, and for the remainder of the year, it's well-positioned to stand up to the economy's headwinds.

We will have brand-new hotel space capability from Red Rock Resorts' Durango property and Fontainebleau on the Strip. We will also have an ingenious new entertainment location with the MSG Sphere at The Venetian.

Two of the city's biggest special events are on the calendar with the Formula One Las Vegas Grand Prix in November and Super Bowl LVIII in February 2024.

If you look even more down the road, there's the high-speed rail from California on the horizon, brand-new hotel and sports entertainment capability in the form of Oak View Group's entertainment district and the possibility of Major League Baseball and the National Basketball Association ultimately having a Las Vegas address.

‘‘ Unprecedented challenges'

How is everything going to clean?

Brendan Bussmann, a video gaming industry analyst with Las Vegas-based B Global, stated there is no doubt challenges await us.

" Las Vegas and Nevada continue to weather unprecedented obstacles from geopolitical and financial forces that continue to challenge the recovery that we have experienced over the last couple of years," Bussmann stated in an emailed statement. "While one month does not imply a trend, the second and third quarters had to do with maintaining the trajectory before heading into the strong chances with new events and new assets to the market that will enable a bump in visitation and profits."

He stated while signs point to an economic downturn, the pipeline for occasions going forward is strong, specifically in the 4th quarter and in the first quarter of 2024. He added that company travel continues to return which should help keep the wheels from coming off the bus.

" We've been bumping up against this for some time with inflation and other financial challenges that we continue to deal with as we near complete healing," he stated. "You would have to go back 40-plus years to even get a comparison in terms of economic and geopolitical events. With that stated, Las Vegas has and will continue to adjust and end up being stronger as it experiences these challenges."

He said even with last week's nationwide financial news revealing development domestic item slowed to 1.1 percent, Las Vegas is well placed to prepare for the worst.

"While I don't see the music stopping like it did during the Great Recession, there are a great deal of signs that point towards a slowdown which likely might result in some bumpy roadways ahead however opportunity to smooth over those toward the end of the year," he said.

Contact Richard N. Velotta at rvelotta@reviewjournal.com or 702-477-3893. Follow @RickVelotta on Twitter.