May forecast: Will our wettest month live up to history?

AUSTIN (KXAN) – – Before April has actually even finished up as the first wetter-than-normal month considering that November, we're expecting May.

What's normal for May in Austin?

• Average High: 86.9 º
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  • May 1 Average High: 83º
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  • May 31 Average High: 91º
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• Average Low: 66.8 º
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  • May 1 Average Low: 63º
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  • May 30 Average Low: 71º
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• Average Rain: 5.04 ″ (Wettest month usually)
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May is usually the wettest and stormiest month of the year in Central Texas and it's typically our wettest month by a lot. No other month of the year averages more than four inches in a month and May averages a little bit more than five!

May 2023 forecast

The Climate Prediction Center released its preliminary projection for May and our chances benefit near-average rains in May. Near-average would indicate wet, as May is our wettest month, but it would not show above-average rain that would help to chip away at our rainfall deficit.

May 2023 Rainfall Forecast (CPC).

Still, with December-March having below-normal rains in Central Texas, even regular rain would be a welcome change. Luckily, April ended our stretch of drier months.

While rains may end up near average in May, we seem heading for another warmer-than-normal month. That pattern has actually been going on since November of 2022.

May temperature projection (CPC).

It's too early to say whether this April will wind up being cooler or warmer than normal. For now the average mean temperature level this month is 1º cooler than a typical April, but we still have a week left.

Severe weather in May

Part of the reason May is our wettest month in Central Texas is that it's also our most active month for severe weather and flash flooding.

Early to mid-May, based on climatology, is the peak severe weather season here in Central Texas.

Mid-May Severe Weather Probabilities based on meteorology (SPC).

While the definition for severe weather consists of large hail, damaging winds or tornadoes, we know that flash flooding is a real concern here in Central Texas.

Heatmap of lethal flooding (NOAA).

Central Texas has the highest concentration of lethal flooding reports from 2006-2020.

It's vital if you see a flooded street that you "turn around, do not drown." And in any serious weather condition being inside a durable structure is the very best location to be.

Make sure you have a way to remain notified about extreme weather condition possibilities consisting of downloading the KXAN Weather App and stay with the First Warning Weather Team as we take you through possibly active weeks ahead.