Researchers trim hurricane predictions as a powerful El Niño looms

Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Further Refined as Powerful El Niño Takes Shape

Meteorological researchers have once again recalibrated their predictions for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, marking the second time this year that forecasts have been adjusted significantly. The updated outlook acknowledges the dominant role of a particularly strong El Niño event in the Pacific, which traditionally suppresses hurricane activity in the North Atlantic.

The revised forecast now suggests a near-average number of named storms, oceanside specialists monitoring the Atlantic Basin projecting further reduction in expected activity. The original predictions, released earlier in the year, anticipated above-normal activity, with NOAA's peak early-season forecasts sticking closer to-season totals, researchers publicly releasing forecast reductions triggered typically seven (ty update with historical),.

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