AUSTIN (BNN) - - Notable warming of the waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific has even more increased the likelihood that El Niño will begin by late spring or early summertime.
The chances of El Niño being in location for next winter are now approximately 93%.
El Niño is the warm phase of the climate pattern known as ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation). Keep in mind, for the last 3 winters we've remained in the cool stage of ENSO known as La Niña.
As the waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean got closer to typical we entered an ENSO Neutral phase in March. Now the waters continue to warm to above typical in all Niño regions (see below) giving higher self-confidence that we're heading for an extended El Niño pattern.
Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño regions (CPC/NOAA).
Exactly when El Niño begins will be based upon a mix of when the sea-surface temperature level anomalies in a specific region of the eastern Pacific Ocean (called the Niño 3.4 region) reach +0.5 ºC and when the atmosphere starts to respond like it's in an El Niño phase.
Computer system model ENSO projections for sea surface area temperature have us fulfilling the 0.5 ºC threshold either in the April-June duration or the May-July duration (see listed below).
Model forecasts for ENSO (CPC/NOAA).
The current projection from the Climate Prediction Center prefers ENSO Neutral (62% possibility) in the April-June period with high chances (82%) of El Niño starting throughout May-July. The Climate Prediction Center makes its projection in three-month increments.
ENSO likelihoods (May 2023 update).
From then on, El Niño is the dominant ENSO phase through next winter season (December 2023-February 2024).
In-Depth: Determining the strength of El Niño
Peeling back the drape a little bit, we aren't simply concerned about what stage of ENSO we remain in, but the strength too. You can have weak, strong or moderate El Niño stages. Normally stronger El Niños bring more impactful weather to parts of the United States, specifically for California and the southwest, compared to weaker El Niño phases.
The strength is determined by how much above average the water temperatures are in the Niño 3.4 region.
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- Water temperatures 0.5 ºC above normal = Weak El Niño
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- Water temperatures 1.0 ºC above typical = Moderate El Niño
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- Water temperature levels 1.5 ºC above regular = Strong El Niño
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Presently, the chances of a moderate El Niño in winter season are at 77% with the odds of a strong El Niño at 48%. High odds for something several months away.
The Climate Prediction Center even alerted that "a possibly significant El Niño is on the horizon," after looking at the current data.
What does El Niño suggest for winter?
Assuming we're in some type of El Niño next winter, that typically suggests a warmer Pacific Northwest, wetter in the south, southwest and seaside southeast with drier weather condition in the interior southeast. Cooler weather is likewise more likely for the south and southeast.
El Niño pattern (NOAA).
The next analysis of ENSO from the Climate Prediction Center will be launched June 8.
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